Hydrological Modeling of the Astore River Basin, Pakistan, by Integrating Snow and Glacier Melt Processes and Climate Scenarios

The upper Indus River basin has large masses of glaciers that supply meltwater in the summer. Water resources from are crucial for human activities and ecosystems Pakistan, but they vulnerable to climate change. This study focuses on impacts change, particularly effects receding water a catchment river basin. predicts flow using hydrologic model coupled with temperature-index snow glacier melt models forced by observed data. is divided into seven elevation zones so components rainfall-runoff were calculated at each zone. Hydrologic modeling revealed contributed one-third total while snowmelt about 40%; rainfall remaining flow. Some scenarios based CMIP5 CORDEX employed quantify change annual flows. retreat mid late centuries also considered scenarios. Future flows, simulated model, project significant changes their quantity timing. In mid-century, flows will increase because higher precipitation melt. Simulations projected until 2050, overall 11%, no shape hydrograph expected. However, this increasing trend reverse century not have enough mass sustain result 4.5% decrease flow, timing monthly peak shift June May. earlier streamflow make management more difficult future, requiring inclusive approaches resource management.